A closer look at the 2004-05 Health Budget: Access Economics analysis

AMA President, Dr Bill Glasson, said Mr Kilham has a reputation for forensic budget analysis.

The Key Points of the Access Economics analysis include:

• There is more emphasis on health and aged care spending this year, both through the course of the year (Medicare Plus) and in the Budget itself (aged care).  Health's slice of total outlays is a bit larger.
• Budget measures amount to $2,753m in the four years 2004-05 to 2007-08.  This decomposes into new spending of $2,804m, less very modest savings measures of $63m.
• In addition, the Government has brought forward no less than $700m of health and aged care spending into this year (2003-04), primarily the $513m sweetener for aged care services.  This comes over as a slightly desperate attempt to reduce an embarrassingly large surplus in 2003-04 and avoid a deficit in 2004-05.  But it is hardly a new ploy.
• The aged care package appears to be quite well directed at the raft of problems in residential aged care.  Stakeholders may dispute the quantum of the increase and some may not get all they want, but the package looks at first glance to be a serious response to the Hogan report.
• The additional money for health and medical research and development is welcome.  Otherwise there is not a great deal that is new.  A number of the "small ticket" items appear to be well aimed at recognised problems.
• The jury is still out to a degree on medical indemnity, as not all the stakes appear to have been hammered into the ground.
• Public hospitals were frozen out of the gravy train despite the pressures on them, and it appears as though the Federal Government is prepared to stare down the State and Territory governments.
• Other opportunities were missed with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health, GP issues, pneumococcal vaccination and tobacco control.

The full text of the analysis is attached.

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