Chronic GP shortage looms
Australia faces an entrenched ongoing shortage of general practitioners unless effective measures are taken to change the current trend, researchers have warned in the latest issue of the Medical Journal of Australia.
A sustainable, steady increase in university medical places is needed to prop up the ailing medical workforce, rather than a sudden boost, which the researchers said may flood the market in the short term but leave the workforce wanting at a later date.
Monash University's Dr Catherine Joyce and colleagues used simulation modelling and analysed recent industry trends to predict the size of the Australian medical workforce until 2012.
They forecast while the total medical workforce would increase by 14,275 by 2012, the GP workforce is likely to face chronic shortages.
The findings also suggest that more doctors will move into specialist sectors, contributing to the decrease in the number of GPs.
On a per capita basis, the specialist workforce is projected to increase by 44 full-time equivalent (FTE) practitioners per 100,000 citizens in 2012, but GPs, which fell by four FTE per 100,000 people in 2003, will remain at this level until 2012.
"The results suggest an entrenched, long-term shortage of the workforce," Dr Joyce said.
"A 25 per cent increase in training intakes would only return the GP workforce to its 2001 level by 2012."
In response to current medical workforce shortages, five new medical schools have opened since 2000, medical graduates are set to increase by 60 percent and changes have been made to visa conditions in an attempt to encourage international students studying in Australia to remain here to work.
But Dr Joyce has warned this sudden growth in the nation's medical workforce may increase the risk of overcorrection.
"The previous boom in medical workforce supply, in the 1970s, was followed by a 'bust', which saw strict limits placed on medical student numbers and GP training program intakes," she said.
"A smoother progression of workforce supply is needed to reduce the likelihood of extreme shortages or surpluses, and assist more effective delivery of medical care."
An increased primary care role for specialists, encouraging doctors to remain in the workforce longer, and changes in policy regarding remuneration and service delivery structures all could help address the looming chronic problem, Dr Joyce said.
The Medical Journal of Australia is a publication of the Australian Medical Association.