AMA contributes to influenza predictive tool – Flucast
A new real-time forecasting tool – Flucast – has been developed for predicting the severity of an upcoming influenza season.
Flucast was developed based on the outcomes of a workshop held in 2016 on the use of real-time modelling to inform policy and decision making. Attendees – including the AMA – indicated that their highest priority was the ability to predict the severity of an emerging influenza season in order to assist with surge and workforce capacity planning.
The Flucast tool allows users to enter information obtained from the real-time surveillance data to predict the severity of the current influenza season. It was developed and validated in Australia using local data. It is a simple tool intended to provide outputs for routine practice by public health officials in a real-time setting with minimal supervision.
The ability to better plan for health services and resources during influenza season will ease the burden on the healthcare system and improve patient outcomes.
You can read more about the outcomes of the 2016 workshop here.
The methodology for the tool is available in a new publication, and the tool can be accessed here.
